CBS reports that Hillary Clinton has received a modest bump in support after the Democratic convention and has now pulled ahead of Donald Trump. The race was tied last week after the Republican convention. Clinton led by a similar margin in June.
Clinton got a four-point bounce after her party’s convention, compared to a two-point bump for Trump after his convention.
When compared to previous Democratic presidential nominees, Clinton’s bounce is similar to those President Obama got in 2012 and 2008, but short of the 13-point bounce her husband, Bill Clinton, received in 1992. In 2000, support for Al Gore rose 10 points after the Democratic convention, but he went on to lose a close race that fall.
When leaners are included – voters who are undecided when initially asked their vote preference but lean toward a candidate – Clinton leads Trump by six points.
Voters who back a candidate remain firm in their support. Nine in 10 Clinton and Trump voters say their minds are made up about their candidate.
Trump maintains his advantage among whites without a college degree, while Clinton has an edge among whites with a degree.
Meanwhilw Nate Silver’s predictions and polling data still show a win for Hillary Clinton at least so far. And that’s important.