(DES MOINES) – Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has opened a significant lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump, now leading him by 15 points, according to a new online nationwide survey conducted on Friday, July 29th by RABA Research, a bipartisan polling firm.
Among likely voters, Clinton garners 46% support to Trump’s 31%. Libertarian Gary Johnson now captures 7% of the vote, while Jill Stein sits at 2%.
A RABA Research poll conducted the day after the Republican convention showed a tighter race, with Clinton at 39% and Trump at 34%. Johnson was at 8% in that survey, while Stein found 3% support.
“After closing the gap to single digits last week, Trump’s post-convention bounce has disappeared,” said RABA Research’s John Del Cecato, a Democratic partner with the firm. “While Trump continues to struggle to consolidate support within his own party, Clinton has a sizable lead among independents, and is even peeling off a small slice of Republican voters.”
When asked if the Democratic National Convention was a failure or success, 38% of respondents called the convention a success, while 23% dubbed it a failure. 38% of respondents said neither, or that they were not sure.
“Hillary Clinton enjoyed a bounce this week, but can she sustain it?” said Tim Albrecht, a Republican partner with RABA Research. “All of the speakers at her convention this week have day jobs and cannot devote all of their time helping to prop her up on the campaign trail. It remains to be seen if her support is fleeting, or if it is a forecast of things to come.”
This week’s poll caps a month of wild swings amongst the electorate. A July 12 RABA Research poll showed Clinton with a 12-point lead. In a post-RNC survey on July 23, Clinton lost ground among men and seniors. Now Clinton has opened a 7-point lead among men, and earns 50% support among women. Clinton also saw seniors swing back her way, and now has a 16-point lead over Trump with those voters.
“Voters are unsettled and highly transient,” said Kim Alfano, Republican partner with RABA Research. “This race is far from determined and the presidency is up for grabs.”
The online poll was paid for by RABA Research and not by any candidate, committee or outside group. The survey measured 956 voters and was conducted Friday, July 29, 2016. The results were weighted to ensure proportional response and the margin of error for the results is +/- 3.2%.