The-Ave.US

No one but Trump can accumulate enough GOP delegates in the remaining primaries and caucuses to win the nomination. That’s a mathematical fact. If he falls short, he still might get enough unpledged delegates and delegates released by other candidates to put him over the top, because many Republicans — including some who don’t like him — feel the candidate with the most popular votes and delegates should be the nominee. But that’s not a sure thing, because a significant number of the pledged delegates Trump won in the primaries and caucuses aren’t loyal to him, and are only obligated to vote for him on the first ballot, which probably is do or die for him.

Cruz, aware of this, is working hard to peel away enough delegates to win on the second ballot, if there is one. But he’s unpopular with party leaders, too, so imagine, despite Trump and Cruz owning 80% of the first-ballot votes, party leadership manipulating the rules to put in someone else: Paul Ryan and John Kasich are mentioned. (Charles Koch reportedly is backing Ryan.) To counter this, might Trump and Cruz join forces to ensure one of them wins, with the other taking the No. 2 spot on the ticket? Given the animosity between them, this is difficult to visualize, but can’t be ruled out.

The Republican end game isn’t clear, but if Trump falters in the remaining contests, the party’s leaders will have the excuse they need to turn to someone else. So he’s got to keep winning in the states that haven’t voted yet, or it’s game over. And if Cruz can’t assemble a second ballot victory, then the GOP leadership could go to the dugout bench for a pinch-hitter. That’s why Kasich is hanging in. Read the story and analysis here.