On the eve of the 4th GOP debate, The Atlantic says Republicans are looking for a leader. Nate Silver has believed all along Rubio is their best candidate, and expects him to be the eventual nominee (see, e.g., this article). It may not matter a whit, if it’s true Democrats only need to keep breathing to get 257 of the 270 electoral votes needed to win (see this map).
In other words, there’s a good chance Republicans are merely going through the motions of nominating a candidate, although that may depend on turnout — and how effective their voter suppression efforts are. (For example, in Alabama they passed a law requiring a photo ID to vote, then closed all the driver’s license offices in counties with large black populations.)
Rubio isn’t a perfect candidate. He’s young and energetic — which perhaps is reminiscent of JFK — and as the offspring of Cuban-American expatriates, he’s reliably rightwing. But he has embarrassing personal financial issues, although it remains to be seen whether this will actually hurt him. (The counterargument is that many Americans are in the same boat and will sympathize with him.)
Going into this debate, Rubio is third in GOP polls behind Carson and Trump. As Bush’s campaign falls apart, Rubio may emerge as the only real alternative to an unqualified, bombastic amateur who would get steamrollered by Hillary Clinton in the general election. Rubio, at least, might have a fighting chance of beating Clinton. If he shows he has the right stuff.
And that is what tonight’s debate will be all about. At this stage, Rubio has nothing sewed up, but with establishment Republicans who hope to avoid a 2016 debacle running out of other viable options, the GOP nomination may well now be Rubio’s if he can keep from losing it. To do that, he doesn’t have to win tonight’s debate, he merely has to not blow it.