For the US, the news is very good. For Israel, not so much.
The Global Post has a very important interview with Abolhassan Bani-Sadr:, the first President of the Iranian Republic. Bani-Sadr was forced to into exile because his views on the US were too moderate for the radicals who had fermented the revolution in 1980 led by Ayatollah Khomeini.
Bani-Sadr’s view is surprisingly like that of Netanyahu. He describes the government of Ayatollah Khameini as imperialist, dedicated to a greater Iran and the creation of a Shia belt of power encircling Israel and Saudi Arabia. He sees an unspoken alliance of Israel and the Saudis as being the target of the Khomeini regime and its long term goals as the source of a misery for the Iranian people. In this view, Khameini is painting The Lausanne agreement as a victory.
The former President is painting a remarkable picture. The bottom line is that this the agreement will force Iran into a new model, a model of diplomacy and power more consistent with the reality of the 21st century In this scenario Iran will continue its confrontation and competition with the Saudi led Sunni alliance. Freed of sanctions against a strategically useless nuclear program, Iran will be free to pursue power by continuing its proxy wars in Iraq, Syria and Yemen.
I suggest that there is another consequence of the agreement for a 21st century war … the weapons of commerce. The Saudis have wasted their immense heritage on a profligate royal family … as strategically useless as Iran’s nuke. What is useful is trade. Freed of the 100s of million’s of dollars spent in building a bomb, Iran could become a local industrial superpower … a regional version of China. The new Iran, combining trade and proxy wars, could create a far more significant threat to Israel.