Short of Some Unforeseen Terrorist Act By Hamas, This War is Near Its End
First, Israel says that refugees in city of Beit Lahiya in the northern Gaza Strip can return to their homes. This would be the first place of the border pacified since the war began over two weeks ago. The decision may reflect a claim in Ynat that nearly all the Hamas tunnels have been realized and the amount of combat between Israeli troops and Gaza fighters has lessened.
As suggested earlier on THE Ave, the goal of Israel can not be occupation or a formal surrender by Hamas. With Hamas’ Christ-like determinations to self-crucify itself, neither of these can happen and, in any case, Israel’s experiences as a colonial governor in Lebanon and the West Bank make a reoccupation of Gaza a poor choice.
What Israel also wants to avoid is an end game that leaves Hamas able to claim a victory. Now, thanks to the lack of support Hamas is getting from Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan combined with Hamas inability to enforce any cease fire in its own side, this has become very difficult. These conservative regimes do not want Islamic extremism in their own countries. Even Turkey, a purported ally of the people of Gaza, has made only a vague threat of sending a second humanitarian ship to cross into Gaza. The Israeli cabinet has announced it is not interested in negotiating for a ceasefire, given the ostensible failing of this past one. Rather, I think the end game is to have chaos in Gaza met by non-Israeli forces … a sort of Marshal plan fed by Saudi and Israeli money and centering on the PLO but including the UN, Egypt and Jordan .. setting up a manageable government in Gaza.
There is only one way Hamas or its radical allies can change this outcome .. a huge and unexpected act of terror. What might this be? My fear would be a dirty bomb filled with radioactive isotopes or a bio weapon like Anthrax. This would be fitting with Hams irredentist credo of self-crucifixion because inevitably it would lead to Israel’s massive bombing of Gaza, turning the place into a horrible no man’s land.
Short of such a horror, I think the end of this war is in sight. Even that Turkish ship might be welcomed, an accolade to Turkey rather than to Hamas, and perhaps a step toward a new and more constructive era.
READMORE about the politics behind the Gaza war