Vos iz Neias reports: To the surprise of many, negotiations under way in Vienna are on pace: diplomats will begin drafting the final agreement next week, and all sides publicly express optimism that a deal can be forged by the self-imposed deadline of July 20.
According to US officials, President Barack Obama will not tolerate a nuclear agreement that falls short of practical incapacitation: the White House is prepared to accept continued nuclear work in Iran, so long as the Iranians are not technically able to produce a nuclear weapon. That standard requires persistant checks on multiple fronts: research and development would have to be invasively monitored, centrifuges would have to be dismantled, and remaining enrichment sites would require constant oversight. And the international community would have to rely on the International Atomic Energy Agency to successfully police the deal on a daily basis, possibly for decades.
Israel’s fears are in these details. Iran’s retention of active research teams will be hard to police; they have finely honed the efficiency of Iran’s centrifuges, enabling Iran to break out from low levels of uranium enrichment at a quicker pace. Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu fears Iran will be left with more of a nuclear capability than the world will want to admit, at the whims and under the watch of a United Nations agency he does not trust, no longer under the yoke of sanctions designed to cripple the program.