This is very bad news for Darcy.
Over at HorseAss, Darryl has posted recent results:
Koster (R) 48%
Burner (D) 17%
DelBene (D) 13%
Hobbs (D) 5%
Ruderman (D) 4%
Rauniyar (D) 1%
Ishmael (I) 1%
Undecided 11%
Another way of looking at these numbers is that Koster is at 48, with 11% independent. If I assume the latter is 2/3 moderate and 1/3 Tea Party, he is winning big time!
The data suggest that even if she “wins” the primary Burner, can not win the election. Her vote in the primary is likely now down to the core support she has from the group that calls itself “progressive.” While the term is fuzzy, I suspect it is no more than 20% of the electorate in the new 1st. I suspect the 17% reflects votes going to Rudderman.
Add in the folks who automatically vote “D”, Darcy’s cap in a general may be 40%! I suspect that Darcy can not win a race with Koster unless he is struck by lightning or reveals that he has not paid taxes for five years.
Suzan DelBene, on the other hand, largely based the media has come from nowhere to 13%. That is not great but it suggests that media, money and establishment support work.
If Suzan does win the primary, she has a chance of winning the election. Here is my reasoning. I assume that some of the Koster vote is business type Rs. If this is true, Suzan may be able to peel votes from his 48. Put simply she has an awful lot of the entrepreneurial image Romney has. Inslee is actually running to the right of McKenna on budget issues .. this could help Suzan. I can even imagine her getting folks to vote a Romney/DelBene ballot!