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The Shoot Out at the Reagan Ranch

Romney managed not to hurt himself.  I do not think that is enough.

Perry sold Perry .   he is painting his campaign as the Reagan Revival.
Romney did himself no harm .

There appears to be nothing to Romney other than being defined as not, not Perry and not Obama.  It is not at all clear that Romney can sell Romney.  His meme is “vote” for who I am not.

I have trouble seeing the Republican party voting for a colorless Mormon.

Perry’s image reminds me of Reagan’s. the real Reagan … rather than the myth Reagan,  Back in the day, I was convinced no one would vote for this B-grade sidekick of a chimp.  Reagan never understood economics or foreign policy.  He said absurd things over and over .. until people believed in him.

This is what Perry will not do now.  Perry will not simply dress up in funny costumes and spout Glenn Beck.  Nor will he, as Romney did, stumble on whether he is  or is not a TPer.  Watch out for the boots and ten gallon hat. This cowboy will offer  a “vision for a new America.”   Since Obama has patented “Change” and “Yes we can”, Perry will offer “America” and  some form of a “new(er) frontier.” Reality will not matter,

My impression is that Perry is too smart to make major faux pas a la Palin or Bachmann and too well financed to be outspent by Romney.  Does this mean Perry is the 2012 Reprican candidate.  I would put odds on that but it is early days and  Perry could turn into the radical right’s version fo John Edwards,   A closet full fo skeletons may be opened by Romney, the media  or even by Perry’s partner from that night on Brokeback Mountainc.

Leaving  aside such Dei ex machina, what we have now is one R who is running on the Tea PartytReagan ticket and one R who is trying to avoid running against the Tea Party by claiming Reagan was rational.  Reagan was not rational but that did not matter.

If ths is Romney’s strategy, he loses.

Bottom line, I do not see how Romney can win unless Perry loses. Aside from Perry’s gay cowboy lover showing up, Perry could lose if:

1.  The cowboy governor of Texas fails to channel the Reagan persona.  We have had little chance to see Perry in public.   For example, Perry could turn out to be as stupid (and careless in speech) as Palin or Bachmann.  Even Reagan was smarter than these two.
2. There are enough residual rational Repubicans left to vote against a radical.  Romney
3. Enough Dems and independents decide they want Romney.

S.M. Schwartz


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