HUFFINGTON:TRUMP CONTINUES TO DEFY SKEPTICS – New polls in Iowa and New Hampshire show Donald Trump sitting comfortably atop the rest of the Republican field. The Iowa GOP contest has gone from a near-tie between Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) earlier this week to an average seven-point advantage for Trump. An NBC/WSJ/Marist poll out Thursday morning shows that 76 percent of Trump’s supporters are firmly committed to him, while 58 percent of Cruz’s are sure of their choice. [Marist]
But he’ll need sky-high turnout – However, pollsters are finding that Trump’s support is strongest among those who haven’t participated in caucuses in the past. Monmouth: “Based on past voting history and voters’ stated intentions to attend this year’s caucuses, the current poll estimates turnout will be 170,000 voters, which would far surpass the 122,000 record GOP turnout from four years ago. Increasing the poll’s turnout projection to 200,000 voters widens Trump’s lead to 32% over 21% for Cruz, with Rubio at 16% and Carson at 9%. Decreasing the turnout projection to 130,000 voters, which would still be a record level, puts the race in a tie at 26% for Trump and 26% for Cruz, with Rubio at 15% and Carson at 12%” [Monmouth]