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Did Romney Lose His Bet????
December 11, 2011, 1:15 am
By NATE SILVER
Saturday night’s debate will probably be best remembered for Mitt Romney offering a $10,000 bet to Gov. Rick Perry of Texas. Mr. Perry was wise to decline the wager, which concerned the language that Mr. Romney used to describe his support for a health insurance mandate in his book.
But bettors at Intrade, the political futures market, are betting against Mr. Romney.
I checked the share prices for the seven major Republican contenders at 8:59 p.m. on Saturday, just before the debate began. Those prices represent estimates of the likelihood that the candidates will win their party’s nomination. At that point, Mr. Romney’s chances of winning the nomination were attributed to be 47.2 percent. They had declined to 44.4 percent, however, as of 12:27 a.m. on Sunday. Meanwhile, the share price for Newt Gingrich, who had a strong evening, rose significantly.