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Why Michael Cohen thinks Trump won’t run in 2024

Michael Cohen was Trump’s personal attorney, actually “fixer,” and went to prison for doing Trump’s dirty work.

(Full disclosure: Cohen is biased; he’s not a Trump fan, and has nothing good to say about his former employer. So consider what he says with that in mind.)

Cohen has previously said he doesn’t believe Trump will run again, so this isn’t news. But his reasoning is interesting:

“Michael Cohen on Sunday [October 16, 2022] said former President Trump will not run for president in 2024 because it would ‘destroy the great grift’ and limit Trump’s ability to spend money raised through his political action committee.”

He explains,

“’It would destroy the great grift. If he runs, all the money would then have to go into a campaign fund. People would have to start expressing who they are, and it becomes listed. They don’t want that anymore than he wants that.’ Cohen added that through a PAC, Trump has ‘total discretion’ over 90 cents out of every dollar. ‘It’s a slush fund,’ he said. ‘He can buy himself a new airplane, or he can use the money to fix his old airplane right now.’”

Well, not exactly; Trump’s raising a lot of money from donors, but most of it — over 90% — is eaten up by fundraising expenses (see story here). He’s raised $387 million since losing the 2020 election, but only $910,500 of that has gone to Republican candidates, and his PAC is sitting on only $93 million of that cash. (Read story here.)

Cohen argues that Trump’s “insatiable need for attention is one reason he continues to flaunt this disingenuous 2024 run. The other is he’s making more money doing that than anything he has ever done before.” He also says Trump “cannot stomach being a two-time loser.”

The thing is, all this makes perfect sense and rings entirely true, even if Cohen is wrong about Trump’s intentions. (Read story here.)

I don’t know what Trump’s going to do in 2024, and maybe even he doesn’t know. I hope by then he’s working in a prison kitchen or laundry (if he is, that would be the first honest work he’s done in his life), but that looks like a longshot to me, whereas I wouldn’t put it past Republicans to return him to the White House, or at least try to, by fair or foul means.

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