You shouldn’t believe everything Russian POWs say to the cameras. They don’t want to be shot. They’re going to say what they think their Ukrainian captors want to hear.
“Nonetheless, there is an authentic sense that many Russian servicemen regret ever having come to Ukraine,” the Guardian reports (here). That’s believable.
One said, “We’re cannon fodder.” They are.
Many are 19- and 20-year-old conscripts “who are scared shitless,” the Guardian says. They were lied to, told they were going on training exercises, or would be welcomed in Ukraine as liberators. They didn’t expect to be shot at. Some of the POWs expressed frustration about being misled by their superiors.
Russia depends on conscripts for about 70% of its army manpower. Those conscripted serve 12 months on active duty, which allows little time for training, making these conscripts both vulnerable and nearly useless in combat. The other 30% are career soldiers who are competent at their assignments. When the Russian forces lined up along Ukraine’s borders, I figured Putin’s invading force would consist of those professional soldiers, but it’s now clear the invading forces include conscripts.
This doesn’t make sense, but it does explain why the Russian invasion is bogged down.
The Russians made other mistakes. “The assumption in Moscow was that the operation would be swift and successful. Soldiers were given food and fuel supplies for only two or three days,” the Guardian says, adding, “The Kremlin also appears to have had a totally fantastical idea of the reception they would get,”
I guess it does make sense to use cannon fodder if you expect to walk in without opposition. But if the Russian planners expected Ukraine to fold without fighting, they obviously miscalculated.
We haven’t seen much of Russia’s professional army in this war. Russia has thousands of combat aircraft, but sent only six dozen warplanes to Ukraine. There’s been little bombing or use of artillery so far. Except for some commando units, it looks a lot like the career army stayed on the sidelines, lobbing missiles into Ukraine, while the kids slogged forward into contested ground.
Apparently they weren’t told to expect combat. This is why you see Russian tanks stopping when Ukrainian civilians stand in front of them. The drivers are confused. They likely didn’t receive any instructions for this.
Western military experts have also criticized the Russian invasion plan. Instead of concentrating their forces into a spearhead and driving toward a key objective, they divided them into three groups, out of contact with each other, and attacked along three widely separated axes, diluting the strength of each attack.
Students of history will recognize an eerie similarity to Hitler’s invasion of the Soviet Union, when German forces were split up into Army Groups North, Center, and South, going in different directions (Army Group North to Leningrad, Army Group Center toward Moscow, and Army Group South to the Caucasus oilfields and industrial city of Stalingrad on the Volga River); none captured their primary objectives.
When history is written, if Russia loses this war it likely will be attributed to “military stupidity.” But don’t count Russia out yet. Military experts agree they have enough firepower to overcome Ukraine’s army, if they figure out how to use it. Things could get much tougher for the defenders. Sustained bombing, artillery support of ground troops, and massed attacks could all be thrown at the Ukrainians. And Russia has the means to level entire cities, if it chooses to.
And nothing points to Putin giving up. To the contrary, he’s likely to double down, and that will lead to more destruction and casualties.
Related article: For an overview of the Russian military, go here.