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U.S. admiral’s Taiwan visit irks China

This article contains liberal opinion.

“A two-star Navy admiral overseeing U.S. military intelligence in the Asia-Pacific region has made an unannounced visit to Taiwan … that could vex China,” BBC reported on Sunday, November 22, 2020. “The Pentagon declined comment, as did Taiwan’s Defence Ministry.” Read story here.

“Randall Schriver, a former assistant secretary of defense for Asia during the Trump administration, … noted that the United States and Taiwan had close intelligence exchanges on the threat from China’s military,” BBC said. And, “The Taiwanese and U.S. militaries have a close relationship,” but this is hardly a secret; it’s simply done discreetly to avoid pissing off Beijing, which claims Taiwan as its sovereign territory.

That’s somewhat like Trump claiming he won an election he lost. The Nationalist Chinese, defeated on the mainland, fled to Taiwan in 1949 and took refuge there. It’s the one part of China that has remained free, but not because Beijing wants it to.

Taiwan is no threat to China’s communist regime; they’re not going to invade China and take back what Chiang Kai-shek’s army lost to Mao’s revolutionaries. If anything, their ability to defend themselves as China builds up its military is a growing concern in the West. Not a few experts suspect that Taiwan may be the most serious crisis to face the next U.S. president.

If that happens, Trump isn’t the person you want in charge. He’s what conservatives call a “surrender monkey.” Taiwan has a democratic form of government, and is a U.S. trading partner, but what happens if China invades Taiwan? Its military buildup appears to designed to do just that. Would the U.S. let China take away the freedom of 23.5 million Taiwanese?

It’s an interesting thought experiment: Would a U.S. president ask the American people to sacrifice American lives to keep Taiwan free? That could be a pretty big and bloody war, after all, and might even go nuclear.

It would be a difficult ask. And a difficult war to fight; the battlefield would be only 100 miles from China’s shores, while the U.S.’s reinforcement and supply routes would be 6,000 miles long. It’s hard to see how such a conflict would not go nuclear; and if it did, how U.S. cities would not be at risk. One thing you can be sure of: People in Beijing are making these calculations.

There’s no question in my mind that Trump would shirk committing the U.S. to a military defense of Taiwan. I’m not sure myself it’s a viable idea, or even a desirable one. Everything we do now to help Taiwan strengthen its self-defense capability, such as recent arms sales like this one, angers China; but then, saying Biden won the election angers Trump supporters. I say to hell with them, you can’t let bullies run our country or the world. We should arm Taiwan before China invades, in order to deter an invasion, because Taiwanese weakness and U.S. waffling surely will invite it.

If China does invade Taiwan, and there can be no doubt they have such plans, although that doesn’t mean they intend to do it (every country does contingency war planning), whether or not we get involved, we’d have to respond. Personally, I doubt any U.S. president is likely to go to war with China over Taiwan, and risk a nuclear war in the process. (How do you not launch a nuclear response, if China destroys a U.S. carrier fleet with a nuclear weapon?)

But I would tell China upfront that if they invade Taiwan, they will not have a relationship with the U.S. in the future. No trade, no U.S. tourists visiting China, no Chinese citizens studying in U.S. universities, no cultural exchanges; I would close the air routes, close U.S. ports to Chinese shipping and goods, and kick their diplomats out of the U.S.; and I would immediately recognize Taiwan. In short, I would say to Beijing: “F*** you, we’re done with you.”

Related articles:

  • “The U.S. Wants to Sell Taiwan the Wrong Weapons” (read here).
  • “China’s Military Is Getting Better at a Lot of Things at Once” (read here)
  • “What Could Happen If China Invaded Taiwan: (read here)
  • “Can America Successfully Repel a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan?” (read here)
  • “How China Would Invade and Conquer Taiwan (And Here’s How to Stop It)” (read here)

Photo: After years of lobbying by Taiwan, the U.S. finally approved a sale of 66 late-model F-16s to Taiwan to replace 1990s-vintage aircraft, but some strategists argue emphasizing aircraft is misplaced and Taiwan should focus on anti-ship and beach defenses. However, it’s hard to imagine stopping an invasion without effective air cover. If China becomes more threatening, the U.S. shouldn’t hesitate to supply F-35s to Taiwan, and if China doesn’t like it, that’s tough.

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