A new CNN poll shows Biden maintaining a 51%-43% lead over Trump nationally, within the margin of error of pre-convention polls. Read story here. That’s bad news for Trump, because it shows he’s made no progress in closing the gap, with little over a month left until voters begin marking mail ballots.
Nate Silver confirms that Trump got only a “very slight” convention bounce which may already be fading (read that story here), but says “there’s not enough evidence yet to know whether unrest in Kenosha and Portland will affect the election” (read that story here).
Trump also continues to have negative approval ratings, but that doesn’t mean all those people will vote against him; they still may agree with his policies, or dislike Biden more.
Many people distrust polls, including Democrats, who point to Hillary Clinton’s unexpected 2016 loss. But it’s a myth the 2016 polls were wrong. They predicted the popular vote to 1% accuracy for a dynamic race that kept closing right up to Election Day. The polls have moved hardly at all this year, suggesting most voters’ minds are be made up, and Biden’s lead is concrete-solid.
The question this article addresses is whether recent events have changed the race. It appears the conventions did not affect voters. This isn’t surprising. Whether Trump’s new “law and order” theme catches on, or the debates will change any voters’ minds, remains to be seen. Election outcomes often depend on voter turnout, and all signs point to high voter interest and strong turnout this year, while Republican will make strenuous efforts to hinder voting.
Photo: Nate Silver has a strong record of forecasting elections, but recently was blinded by the gods (note glassy eyes missing pupils) for seeking knowledge of the future, which is a forbidden to mere humans. See story about that, click here. Note to conservative readers: If you don’t know what “The Onion” is, you’d better look it up here before jumping to ridiculous conclusions.