Can Cuba Emerge Under the Pax Sinica?
Fidel Castro was a classical Leninist. He violates Marxism by believing that one can create a communist society without first developing a strong middle class. The result of that, wherever Leninism has been tried, is the creation of a totalitarian bureaucratic state … beginning with the thermidor destruction of the French revolution and progressing through Stalin and Mao.The problem is thinking about the alternatives. Serfdom in Russia, thugocracy in pre Castro Cuba, and plutocracy, and nobility are pretty horrible.
Perhaps we need to call it Dengism? It is difficult to argue that economically Dengism does not work. China has avoided the need for democracy and moved directly into creating a middle class under the rule of the CCCP.
I suspect that if the Trump were not a fool, he would pull a Nixon and welcome Cuba into the world trade environment. Because Trump instead heightens the blockade, he gives Cuba no real alternative. That could change. As China expands as a world power reminiscent of the British Empire, I suspect Trump’s policies will be superseded y Chinese trade deals. If Cuba is well managed, it could be a natural part of a new “commonwealth” of trading powered tied together by Chinese hegemony.