The Hare and the Turtle

Tuesday night the grandiose Trump will celebrate the good economy.  Democrats will  wring their hands.  Both are wrong!

Trump is a typical American businessman, focused on growth on his one wealth rather than on the long term.. There is a different issue here and that is how to create along term, growing economy. 

Trump does deserve credit.  His tax policy and regulatory changes are working.  We all benefit.  For example, African American unemployment IS at a long term low.  Yeah!  But, that blessing is a result of  long term changes put in place by Obama.  Economic  reforms put  in place to stop the great recession  have helped all Americans and steadily reduced black unemployment.  If Trump were not such a megalomaniac, he would celebrate eight years of growth!

The story of black unemployment, however, is not all good and not just about Black Americans.  During this same time the wealth gap between African Americans and the rest of America has  grown.  African Americans are not the only victims, the poor and the middle class are both being devastated.  Trump’s policies, feeding wealth over labor, will increase that gap. Upward mobility, opportunity, the American dream are all words for the central theme of America.  Today the upward mobility of a poor American person, with a weakened social net and incredibly expensive barriers to education, t has fallen way behind the opportunities in other wealthy countries.  For the lower classes , the US is in real danger of becoming the kinds of shithole Trump so despises!  

The Trump spurt could be a good thing if the capital created by a growing market  gets built in.  Unfortunately we will not know that for a few years unless there is a market crash.  Obama’s economists came from the best of corporate and academic talent.    This type of adviser is missing from the Trump administration.  They publicly  discussed and argued about a bigger stimulus to deal the great recession. Obama  opposed the sort of short term stimulus.    Obama gave us one of the longest periods of sustained growth in GDP in American history.

In the meantime a number of changes have occurred.  China has emerged as a superpower, a NEW kind of superpower.  China, Inc. is built on its commercial prowess.  This greatest of all corporations is investing in shipping, already owning 50% of the world’s cargo fleets. a new trade and road corridor, the silk road,  that stretches  from Beijing to Paris, and investments in critical technologies.  Worse for the US, Chinese brands are not run as global enterprises.  Ali Baba and Huwai are parts of a corporate state while GE and Google have every incentive to care  about their world rather than”making America great again.”  F0r that matter American and European companies involved in joint ventures with state-owned Chinese firms are expected to give internal Communist Party cells an explicit role in decision-making. Why would an American company put US interests ahead of the larger Chinese market?  In contrast to Trump, Xi Jinping, the CEO of China Inc, has every reason to promote the welfare and growth of the middle class, the Chinese people. 

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