The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office analysis says that “Trumpcare” will lead to 14 million fewer Americans with health insurance by 2018 and 24 million by 2026,
“Some of those people would choose not to have insurance because they chose to be covered by insurance under current law only to avoid paying the penalties, and some people would forgo insurance in response to higher premiums,” the CBO said in its analysis. The number of Americans who lose their coverage would rise in later years as states phase out Obamacare’s Medicaid expansion, the CBO said.
“In 2026, an estimated 52 million people would be uninsured, compared with 28 million who would lack insurance that year under cur
rent law,” the analysis said.
Ryan and other GOP congressional leaders were trying to soften the blow of the CBO analysis. Alst Sunday the Speaker said that ‘Well, gosh, not as many people will get coverage.’ ” “You know why? Because this isn’t a government mandate…We’re not going to make an American do what they don’t want to do. You get it if you want it.”
As usual for Trumpland, the White House is casting doubt on the Congressional Budget Office .
During a segment on ABC’s This Week, White House Office of Management and Budget director Mick Mulvaney pointed to the CBO’s track record on the ACA as evidence that the agency isn’t capable of assessing a large piece of legislation.
“If the CBO was right about Obamacare to begin with, there’d be 8 million more people on Obamacare today than there actually are,” Mulvaney saidMarch 12. “So, I love the folks at the CBO, they work really hard. They do. Sometimes we ask them to do stuff that they’re not capable of doing.”
The CBO did say that would save the government $337 billion over 10 years. This may, however, trigger the filibuster in the Senate where budgeting rules used by Republicans to avoid debate require that the legislation trim the deficit at least $2 billion over 10 years. Even aside from the direct outlays in the CBO estimate, it is likely that Trumpcare would have a huge inflationary effect on hospital costs because, under the Hill Burton law, hospitals themselves bear the costs of care for indigents. These costs have gon down under Obamacare because so many fewer people were uninsured.
Meanwhile, TRUMPCARE may not survive the House Budget Committee. This would require no votes from four GOP members of the Committee. Mark Sanford R of South Carolina, joined Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul at a news conference last week to slam the legislation as a dereliction of the Republican Party’s campaign promises. Sanford along with Dave Brat of Virginia and Gary Palmer of Alabama – are members of the far right Freedom Caucus. Brat has gone one step further, indicating he will vote against the bill as written.If those three lawmakers choose to vote no, only one other Republican “no” is needed to kill the bill, and there’s a host of options. Florida freshman Rep. Matt Gaetz was a vocal opponent of Obamacare on the campaign trail and said, “I come to bury Obamacare,” in one of his first speeches in Congress. Rep. Tom McClintock of California, a former Freedom Caucus member, said he was “looking at it” when asked last week whether he supports the bill. Rep. Glenn Grothman of Wisconsin is concerned with how many employers would provide coverage under the Republican-sponsored plan. “As drafted, the current replacement plan could result in even less people on employer plans than under Obamacare – with the credits possibly creating an incentive for employers to drop coverage,” Grothman said in a statement.