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UW Huskies have 1 chance in 14 of being the champs!

MAKES PLAYOFF WINS NAT’L TITLE
TEAM CONFERENCE PROB CHANGE PROB CHANGE
Alabama SEC 90% -1 36% -2
Clemson ACC 78 +8 16 +3
Ohio State Big Ten 60 +5 19 +2
Michigan Big Ten 37 +1 12
Washington Pac-12 36 +3 7 +2
Wisconsin Big Ten 30 +6 3 +1
Oklahoma Big 12 28 +14 4 +2
Colorado Pac-12 16 +6 2 +2
Penn State Big Ten 15 +6 <1
Okla. State Big 12 7 +4 <1
USC Pac-12 2 -1 <1
Florida SEC <1 <1
Auburn SEC <1 <1
Nebraska Big Ten <1 <1
W. Michigan MAC <1 <1
Tennessee SEC <1 <1
Utah Pac-12 <1 -2 <1
Wash. State Pac-12 <1 -4 <1
W. Virginia Big 12 <1 -6 <1
Louisville ACC <1 -40 <1 -9
2016 College Football Playoff predictions update, Nov. 23

Washington could also give itself better than a coin flip’s shot at the playoff if it beats Washington State on Friday, regardless of what happens in Columbus the next day. And Penn State (which holds a head-to-head tiebreaker over Ohio State but not Michigan) could still play spoiler in the Big 10’s East divisionwith a win and a Michigan loss — although in that event, our model still gives the Buckeyes a 94 percent CFP probability even without them appearing in the conference championship game.

With either Michigan or Ohio State practically certain to drop out of the CFP running after a loss Saturday, the main question coming out of the week, assuming all the top favorites win, will be who — whether it be Washington or Wisconsin, or perhaps even Oklahoma, Penn State or Colorado — emerges as the most likely candidate to join Alabama, Clemson and the Ohio State/Michigan winner among the top four going into conference championship weekend.

And if any of the favorites lose? Then everyone’s favorite feature of late-season college football — pure chaos — will win the weekend.


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