I think that’s the wrong question to ask, and don’t believe the debate should be analyzed in those terms. Instead, let’s evaluate its potential impact on the campaign.
- It may keep Joe Biden out of the Democratic nomination race. He’s the Democrats’ default candidate if Hillary falters. She didn’t, so the rationale for a Biden candidacy has been weakened.
- Clinton needs to regain her footing, and this debate may help get her campaign back on track. Her #1 problem was defusing the email issue; Bernie did it for her.
- Their first debate gave the Democrats an opportunity to showcase to the electorate that they’re not a divided, dysfunctional, bickering party like the GOP, and they took full advantage of it. I suspect the party’s leading strategists sat down with the candidates and worked this out with them ahead of time. While they’re not all on the same page, they all played nice. Bernie played extra nice. (More about that in a moment.)
- Sanders made it clear his top priority is electing a Democrat, and electing Bernie Sanders is secondary. He entered the race aiming to steer the conversation, and didn’t expect to be the competitive candidate he has become, courtesy of his adoring fans. Despite this development, he isn’t carried away with his popularity, and is sticking to his priorities. This is all to his credit. It’s unlikely he’ll be the nominee or our next president, but he’s earning a larger voice in the party’s direction and greater influence over policy decisions.
- Chaffee’s gaffe can’t be said to have knocked him out of the race, because he never really was in the race in a competitive sense. This debate didn’t lift Webb to contender status, either. For Democrats, if there are any, who don’t want to vote for Bernie or Hillary, O’Malley’s their man. He’s functioning as a Biden surrogate in the latter’s absence.
Overall, I think last night’s debate offered viewers a stark contrast between sober, thoughtful, and civil Democrats versus the GOP’s raucous clown parade. Its importance is not which Democratic candidates helped or hurt themselves, but what it did to sell the Democratic Party to voters who will decide our nation’s fundamental direction a year from now.