One of these faces is America’s next president. These are the candidates. There won’t be more. How do I know?
David Graham, a staff writer for The Atlantic, argues it’s too late for anyone else to make a serious run. He says, “the increasing importance of locking down donors and getting a fundraising apparatus in place” makes it “harder and harder for a candidate to stay on the fence.” Campaign talent and fundraisers “may already be locked up,” and “it seems possible that the field is already set.”
He’s a professional journalist, so his observations are laced with words of caution like “may” and “seems possible,” but I don’t have to be that careful. There’s a reason why the real candidates are declaring now in a rush. They’ve all waited as long as possible, and even though the election is still more than 18 months away, they’ve reached a point where they can’t wait any longer. These people are professional politicians. They know the calculus. Here’s the 2016 field; one of these people will be America’s 45th president (the oddsmaker is me, not Graham):
Candidates with a chance to win: Hillary Clinton, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker
Running to get exposure: Marco Rubio
In the race with no chance of winning: Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson
Want me to handicap it further? Okay, I feel confident enough about this to stick my neck out. Our next president likely will be Hillary Clinton, but if not her, then probably Jeb Bush.
Scott Walker may make a strong showing in some of the primaries, but 3 factors will keep the GOP nomination and White House out of his grasp: (1) The GOP establishment will opt for a safe candidate, (2) he’s too conservative for general election voters, and (3) he has baggage from his Wisconsin campaign funding scandals.
Rubio won’t win, and doesn’t expect to; he’s positioning for 2020 or 2024, and is a likely future GOP nominee, but it’s not his time yet. His objective in this campaign is to give his party and voters a good look at him. If Jeb loses, he’ll immediately become the GOP’s next frontrunner.
Polls show Paul, Cruz, and Carson aren’t in contention, and there’s no reason they should be. Paul is an ideologue with an enthusiastic but non-expandable following; Cruz is a niche candidate disliked and distrusted in his own party; and Carson is the Herman Cain of 2016 — a lovable black dilettante not remotely qualified for the nation’s highest political job.