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UPDATE: The Fugitive: Snowden’s Movie

This Has The Makings of a Great Movie!

Apparently the fugitive can not fly out of Mscow becausse all routes to some sacuary ncontry require permission to fly over US territory.  That leaves him three outs:

1. Live forever in the airport!

2. Get someone to offer him a diplmatic courier plane protected by diplomatic privilege.  The cost would be in the 100s of thusands just to rent the plane.  Whether the US wuld accept this passage is not clear.

3. The Russians could give h8m safe passage on the trans siberian train, letting hm off in Moscow where a North Korean ship could take him to Bolivia.

4. File:Trans-Siberian railway map.png

When an Aeroflot plane from Moscow took an unusually southerly course to Havana on Thursday, it quickly triggered speculation that American fugitive Edward Snowden could be on board. This turned out to not be true but  the speculation was reasonable. International aviation rules may mean that  a commercial flight is the  best ticket to asylum, trumping private jets or government planes.

Russian authorities will want to avoid repeating the fate of Iranian refugee Mehran Karimi Nasseri, who spent about 18 years in Paris’ Charles de Gaulle Airport. His experience inspired the Tom Hanks film “The Terminal,” which was shown on Russian satellite television this week.

“One of the principles of the Chicago Convention system is that commercial carriers have the right of overflight, or the right to do things like stop for fuel, without seeking permission from the country over which they are flying,” said aviation lawyer Simon Phippard of UK-based law firm Bird & Bird.

Government aircraft, on the other hand, need permission before they can legally enter a foreign country’s airspace. Any doubts that U.S. allies would bar Snowden’s way ended last week when several European countries barred Bolivian President Evo Morales’ plane from entering their airspace when he was travelling home from Moscow.

“Every state on the basis of state sovereignty has the right to deny overflight to state aircraft,” said John Mulligan, a research fellow at the International Aviation Law Institute at DePaul University in Chicago.  The legal grounds for preventing a private charter plane, such as a business jet, from entering a country’s airspace are more complex and open to a patchwork of different rules and interpretations, but legal experts agree it would be harder to stop a commercial flight than a state or private plane.

Other options:

A private charter with a specially tailored route could take him north over the Arctic and then south over the Atlantic, avoiding U.S. and its allies’ airspace. A former CIA analyst quoted by Foreign Policy magazine referred to this as the “scenic route” and estimated the journey at 11,000 km.

But where would the plane refuel, who would foot the potentially huge bill and where would Snowden get such a plane? There are no obvious answers.

The longest-range business jet in the world, according to its manufacturers, is the Gulfstream G550, made by a unit of General Dynamics. Its brochure boasts a range of 6,750 nautical miles but that could be shortened by the need to leave spare fuel for emergencies, especially when travelling over long stretches of ocean.

Private charters from Moscow to Caracas are advertised for about 100,000 euros without counting the extra mileage needed to thread his way between unfriendly airspace.

BOAT OR TRAIN?

Snowden might yet opt for a less obvious means of transport, perhaps heading northwest from Moscow by boat or taking the Trans-Siberian Express train across Russia towards Asia. There is virtually no trade between Russia and Venezuela, so hopping on a merchant ship is hardly likely to be an option, though.

Such trips would be slow, leaving him vulnerable, and involve leaving the precincts of the transit zone and formally stepping on Russian soil, something Moscow has made clear it wants to avoid.

 

 


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