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BREAKING NEWS: An objective analysis of the Romney campaign

Last weekend I wrote a somewhat impressionistic piece about the current Repuboican campaign, comapring it to an over written script for a Hollywood movie.  Nate Silver, the highly objective political analyst at the NY Times has wroitten a more objective view that I highly recommend.

My point was that it is likely too late for anyone else to enter the race.  Romney and Perry are the two candidates with resources to persist through the early primaries even if they fail to meet expectations.

Silver analyzes the effect of an entry by Cristie and shows that the obese man from NJ is not a TP conservative . Silver’s bottom line is that Christie is likely to not make the TP happy but to appeal to the same establishment in the GOP that is tentatively adherent to Romney.  That group is afraid of a Tea Party in the WH.  T If Christie were to enter, he would split the establishment and deprive Romney of the funds the ex governor needs to fight as long ground games vs. Perry.
Perry’s support is more confusing to me.  I do not understand who actually funds the TP and how far they are willing to go with a bet.
Perry needs to win early.  FLA was a blow to him that he needs to overcome in Iowa and FLA.  If he does not then I wonder about how deep his TP supporters want to double down.  So, I think he neds to do things to shore up those victories at the poles. I suspect he will do something and the pobvious thing is to get support from a big name … one of those I mentioned.

Make more sense? Bottom line, Romney is in trouble.

 


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